Investors' Due Diligence

Origent supports investors’ due diligence in evaluating the efficacy of drugs. Our analyses help screen and identify the investment portfolio candidates that are most likely to generate returns for investors.

The Problem: Investment Decisions Often Must Be Made Without Adequate Efficacy Data

Venture capital investors and internal capital management professionals must determine the most promising therapies in which to invest.  A drug that fails in a subsequent clinical trial creates huge losses to your fund’s investment portfolio.

Investment decisions must often be made on the basis of early stage clinical trials.  However, these early trials are designed to demonstrate safety and commonly lack the placebo control arms necessary to measure efficacy.

How can an investor make an early determination of which investment candidates are the most likely to succeed in later stages?  What is needed is an objective method for evaluating these investments and comparing their relative likelihood for success in later clinical trials, to measure and segregate the “home runs” from the likely “strike outs.”

The Solution: Identify Efficacious Therapies Using Accurate Virtual Controls

Prior to investing, use a virtual control arm in a disease trial to identify efficacious therapies early before they gain value from a successful phase 2 clinical trial.  For each patient in the early-stage trial, Origent creates personalized, detailed predictions of how their symptoms likely would have progressed over time, absent the treatment.  We then use this information as a virtual control arm and compare it to the patient’s outcome following a therapy. .

We compare each patient’s disease state over time to their personalized, “absent treatment” progression path.  For each patient in the trial, we measure the likelihood that the patient experienced a positive, negative, or no treatment effect.  We combine these analyses to measure the likelihood that the drug is efficacious.

We further analyze those patients who likely experienced a positive response to the drug and estimate the extent of their response.  We then analyze patient subgroups to isolate responder characteristics to determine whether strategic decisions can be made or additional experiments should be conducted in order to maximize the chances of the drug’s approval.

The Outcome: Better Early Investment Decisions

  • Investors and strategic acquirers can now evaluate multiple investment candidates, estimating the likely efficacy of each therapy using a common baseline for comparison.
  • Investors improve their overall returns by investing in only the most promising candidates and avoiding investments whose drugs are likely to fail in subsequent rounds.
  • Good investment targets can be identified earlier in the drug development cycle, even before positive Phase 2 data are obtained and the acquisition price becomes costlier.

Can we help you to invest with greater confidence?

Please contact us to learn more about how we can support your investment due diligence.

We are happy to discuss our approach in detail and answer your questions.

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